達拉斯2010年二二八和平日紀念音樂會

民進黨再度獲得選民之肯定──評227立委補選

227台灣四席立委補選，民進黨贏三席，國民黨贏一席。選舉結果造成國民黨四連敗之紀錄。選後民進黨之反應是表示欣慰，但對蕭美琴在花蓮之敗選表示不捨，也強調這次好結果並不代表下次的優勢，這是人民對馬政府執政的檢驗，也是人民給民進黨的機會。國民黨的反應是，認為努力不夠，仍要堅持改革，大步向前。從兩黨高層之談話就可看出兩黨的態度、認知及感受是截然的不同。

從台灣的整個政治情勢看，選民對馬英九執政團隊的不滿還在上升中，對民進黨之肯定也在加強中。這一消一長造成的趨勢也持續保持著。這些帶來的政治訊息已非常明確，如何因應頹勢或優勢，就看兩黨領導者之政治智慧了。須知一般人民的訴求極為簡單，即「生活改善」的現實問題。馬英九無法滿足人民之基本要求，自然施政滿意度差。這是大家瞭解的馬英九失去民心之最重要因素。其次就是大家漸次發現，馬英九施政偏差之根本原因是「無能」引起的。遇到88水災，更將馬英九之無能形象擴大百倍，再次發現馬英九也「無心」治國。一連串的內政問題再加上外交休兵，經濟傾中之政治走向，更讓眾多選民看穿馬英九之真面目。大家已對他失去「期待」、「失望透頂」是最真實的大眾心聲。

當然分析選舉結果也可透露出很多信息。在正常方面：國民黨在經費及發揮基層組織戰仍佔絕大優勢；補選立委投票率在40%上下；兩當高層賣力輔選。在不正常方面：國民黨分裂情況較嚴重；國民黨流失中間選民的支持；國民黨提名政策失調；國民黨人才短缺現象浮出。由於正常功能之正面功效抵擋不住不正常功能之負面效應、國民黨只有走向敗選之途。國民黨唯一可告慰的是，保住花蓮，留點面子。在桃園第三選區投票率為41.37%，雖然民進黨的黃仁杼以47.25%之得票率當選、但泛藍之總合仍大於綠。在嘉義第二選區，投票率為38.36%，民進黨陳明文以67.92％之得票率遙遙領先。在新竹縣方面，投票率為36%，民進黨彭紹瑾以55.97％之得票率大幅領先。在花蓮縣投票率為41.59%，民進黨之蕭美琴以40.80%之得票率敗選。與二年前立委選舉比較，民進黨之候選人之得票率呈10-12%之成長。

今年一月九日立委補選，桃園第二選區之投票率為38.42%，民進黨郭榮宗之得票率為58%，台中縣第三選區之投票率為45.09%，民進黨簡肇棟得票率為55%，台東投票率為39.44%，民進黨賴坤成之得票率為49%，而去年九月二十六日雲林縣第二選區投票率為41.59%，民進黨劉建國之得票率為58%。從以上之投率及得票率比較，民進黨與國民黨候選人不論1 對1或1對多之對決、民進黨之優勢有擴大之趨勢。因此民進黨之四連勝不是偶然的，而是各項綜合因素成功地發揮功能，導致國民黨反擊無力。

自從馬英九執政後，國民黨即啟動各種奧步干涉司法，摧殘民主制度。現已將其魔掌伸到選舉制度上了。幸好尚存的一點司法正義勉強支撐各項選舉的公平性。在這種情況下，台灣的民主是起了質的變化。中間選民自主性提高，泛藍選民熱情降溫，選民對民進黨再次的肯定，民進黨蔡英文主席之領導方式及方向也受到肯定。馬英九之領導風格備受批評。最明顯的是，民進黨樹立穩健、理性、認真、負責的正面風格及形象。而國民黨之大量重用中國人(外省人)、排除台灣人進入權力核心，更加強其威權封建形象。更妙的是以任命金溥聰為秘書長，堅固「馬金體制」之發揮而達到高潮。質變引起量變，選舉上之四連敗就是量變的結果。國民黨也知道它是一個警惕，誓言改革。但一般人敏感之嗅覺已察出、國民黨只懂得改革黨務(談團結、歸隊)，而不是改革「政務及心態」。

馬英九習慣套用「大環境」來掩飾國民黨之敗選原因。假的大環境是「天亡我也，非戰之罪也」。真的大環境是「馬英九平庸之材，不知虛心求教、卻一意孤行，陷入四面楚歌」。馬英九重用金溥聰是禍是福，國民黨之政治人物大家心裡有數。我們不知金秘書長是否受到馬英九之感染，也失去理解力，反應力及執行力。是否也大嘆「好人沒好報」而顧影自憐。不久五都選舉的相關政治議題將相繼浮上檯面。若金小刀正派經營黨務選務，也許國民黨還有一點勝選之機會。若沈迷於擦亮「馬英九光環」之神奇效果，那麼國民黨遭受五連敗是可預期的。

過去阿扁執政時期，國民黨及親藍媒體不斷地以「貪腐及內鬥」抹黑民進黨。如今大家可屏心靜氣地比較兩黨執政之優劣了。馬英九為了弱化民進黨，頻打「阿扁牌」。為了處理經濟議題頻打「中國牌」。事實證明這兩種牌都失效了。下一步國民黨計劃以何種奧步對付民進黨？以馬英九自戀自傲心虛之個性，他以「強硬手法」對付民進黨及人民之可能性為最高。二年來在蔡英文之領導下，民進黨已練就不陷入國民黨圈套之功夫，因此民進黨應可應付來自國民黨之攻擊。未來兩黨都將為五都選舉傷神。誠如大多數政治評論員講、五都選舉才真正考驗兩黨的集體智慧與決心。若未來九個月，馬英九之政績仍無起色，那麼國民黨將無法複製「花蓮現象」、以為鞏固鐵票區，就勝券在握。

Precursor to 2012
DPP gaining momentum gradually

In Taiwan, the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) suffered yet another defeat last week as it only managed to take one of four seats up for grabs in with remaining three going to the main opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). It is the third election setback for the ruling party since December, sounding an alarm for the KMT and giving a boost to the DPP ahead of the crucial races in five special municipalities at the end of the year.

DPP candidate cruised to easy victory in Chiayi, a traditional stronghold of the opposition party. In Hsinchu and Taoyuan — where the ruling party KMT has been dominating the political scene for a long time— DPP candidates defeat KMT’s.  What even more amazing is in Hualien, where KMT enjoyed a 3 to 1 margin over DPP, KMT nominee took over 39,379 votes, defeating his DPP competitor, by only 6,000 votes. DPP has never done so well in Hualien. 

The KMT has suffered a series of setbacks in elections since regaining power in 2008. Before losing the two legislative by-­elections, it also suffered defeats in the Miaoli and Yunlin legislative by-elections, as well as the local government elections in December. The momentum could cause a ripple effect that will undermine KMT prospects in the five special municipality elections at the end of the year, which are considered more important than the two recent legislative by-elections.
President Ma who also is the Chairperson of KMT apologized to supporters two days after the election and KMT blamed its local party members’ infighting for it defeat Unfortunately, Ma and KMT failed to recognize that biggest factor behind the KMT’s defeats was the lack of public trust in the Ma administration. In addition, Ma’s ceded Taiwan’s sovereignty to China is a great concern to people in Taiwan. 70% of the people called themselves Taiwanese and they prefer to maintain independent of China as it is now. Totally disregard the wish of Taiwanese people, Ma accepted China’s version of “One-China” principle, i.e. there is only one China and Taiwan is part of China. Ma claimed that he seeks détente with China and hoped China will not deny the existence of the Republic of China. What he got in return is that China treats Taiwan as his a locale, just like Hong Kong and Macao. 

Ma’s government wants to sign MOU to establish a financial frame work with China, an economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) with China, and eventually a peace treat with China. He has made up his mind that he will do whatever it takes to make sure those three agreements with China are in place before end of his first term as Taiwan’s president. The rapid steps moving toward China is a great concern to most of people in Taiwan. This concern along with Ma’s incompetence in governing and his dismal performance in improving Taiwan’s economy resulted in Ma’s very unpopular rating in the poll, low 20% approval rating. Those are reasons why KMT lost 5 by-elections in a row.  

After crushing defeat in 2008, DPP is coming back gradually by wining one election at a time. DPP will definitely gain some more momentum if it wins the five special municipality elections in December this year. DPP’s wins so far look like just precursors to what is to come -DPP will retake president’s office in 2012.

However, Ma’s ineptness does not guarantee DPP’s definite winning.  DPP has a lot more to deal with.  Right now the Taiwan’s pro-China/pro-KMT media are trying to direct DPP whom and what to pick for the election in December and to create some friction between those what is called “Tian Wangs.”( Heaven Kings)  DPP politicians should be wise enough not to fall into any trap of ego trip but let Chairperson, Dr. Tsai Ing-wen lead DPP to show the supporters that DPP can be different but overall there is only one leader and one enemy.