北美彰化同鄉會潤餅懇親會於一月九日在大洛杉磯台灣會館舉行

選民給馬英九當頭棒喝  國民黨真的會記取教訓？ 

1月9日台灣舉行桃園縣、台中縣、台東縣三席立委補選，民進黨獲得大勝利，創下全壘打的紀錄，補選結果震撼台灣社會各界，台灣媒體形容說，這是台灣選民給馬英九當頭棒喝。客觀由得票率來做分析，這次立委補選，藍軍選票沒有開出來，可是綠營選票都開了出來，導致選舉結果變天，民進黨沒有贏得選票，可是卻贏了席次，國民黨則是選票與席次都輸掉，才會產生綠長藍消的結果。 

去年底三合一選舉之後，民進黨贏了1個縣長席次，國民黨保住12個縣市，但得票率大幅滑落，可是馬英九並沒有得到教訓，對簽訂ECFA、開放美牛等重大爭議議題不作任何調整；造成今年立委補選，國民黨全軍覆沒的結果，台灣民心思變，社會充滿變天的氣氛，人民不滿馬英九的氣氛達到了最高點，才會產生國民黨三席皆輸的結果。 

很明顯的，馬政府一年多的執政表現，台灣民眾已經由不滿、失望、到灰心，進而演變為厭惡；在「民怨」的大勢所趨之下，縱使國民黨出盡王牌、傾盡行政資源、使盡絕招，仍難以扭轉乾坤，過去力挺國民黨的選民，不願出來投票，等於是用這種消極的方式來發洩心中的不滿。 

可以說，經由這一次立委補選，民進黨挑戰2012年總統大選的方向，已從以前絕不可能的任務，變成很有可為，民進黨第七屆立委席次終於跨過四分之一門檻，不僅將擁有修憲、罷免總統等提案權，未來在立法院的議事運作上，具有更寬廣、靈活的戰略和戰術運用空間，成為真正具有制衡意義的反對黨。 

雖然民進黨中央公開表示，未來不會輕易啟動罷免總統，但是針對兩岸簽訂ECFA、重啟美牛談判等議題，卻可以要求馬英九到國會進行國情報告，直接作政策交鋒。如此看來，馬英九雖然仍然擁有一黨獨大的國會主導權，可是已不是不可挑戰的政治獨裁者，馬的政治威權性格，將會面臨重大的挑戰。 

民進黨此次攻下史上第一席台東縣立委，對於黨內士氣和接續而來的選戰，都有極大的激勵和鼓舞作用。以前，民進黨內上下對「艱困地區」的選戰，總有相當的畏戰心態，對相關選區的經營，態度也不夠積極、認真；如三合一選舉中，桃園縣長候選人在投票前58天才誕生，苗栗縣長也是遲遲找不到人出來參選，全黨充滿著畏戰的氣氛，直到三合一勝選，這種畏戰、怯戰的氣氛，才大為改變，可是現在，「連台東縣都能贏了」，其他地區也沒有甚麼不可能。對於2月27日即將到來的第二階段立委補選，甚至是年底的5 都市長選舉，黨內上下都是鬥志高昂、信心大增。 

勝選大大振奮，也提醒民進黨中央更體認到，「黨內團結」的重要性。黨主席蔡英文將強化內部整合的工作，民進黨在三合一選舉小勝後，決策核心信心大增，對立委補選的規劃，展露必勝的決心，尤其是把內部的整合，視為首要事務，蔡英文對勸退非黨提名而有意參選的人士，費盡力氣，為勸退彭添富在桃園縣第二選區參選，威脅黨提名參選者郭榮宗的選票，蔡英文進行勸退，從晚上待到清晨，直到彭點頭答應，她才離去，「磨功」十足，同樣情形也發生在勸退前立委林國慶身上，民進黨已決定提名陳明文參選，就要勸退林國慶，蔡英文為了達成任務，也是從晚上待到半夜，可以說她為做到黨內的整合，費了很大力氣，這是三合一勝選後的新態勢。 

民進黨在這次立委補選勝選，歸結起來的關鍵因素，是民意普遍對馬政府的失望、不滿。事實上，這次三席補選地區，多數區域原本就藍大於綠，而補選過程中，國民黨的「組織動員」力量依舊強力運作，各種買票傳聞不斷；但是結果國民黨部分地區，卻連「基本盤」都未開出，顯示賄選的效力，已逼近臨界點。 

立委補選的關鍵意義，就是要讓民進黨在立法院的力量增強，尤其看到近來朝野攻防的美國牛肉進口議題、或是疫苗議題，甚至ECFA議題，朝野的攻防很重要，在野黨必須扮演守護台灣人民最大利益的角色；當執政黨一意孤行、黑箱作業時，在野黨意義更顯重要。選民已經深刻體認到這一點，讓民進黨多一個席次，多一份保護台灣人民的力量。讓民進黨更有力，制衡力量也會更有力。 

民進黨在這次選舉中打出「公道」的口號，要選民還給民進黨一個公道，在這些選區的街道上高掛著「公道」的布條 ，成為這次選戰的一大特色。這次有三席立委需要補選，主要是有兩席是因為國民黨當選的立委因賄選而被解除職務，另一席則是因為國民黨利益交換的結果，縣長選立委、立委選縣長，這都不是民主政治的常態，才會激發選民的嚴重不滿，透過選票希望給當事人公道，並對台灣民主扭曲現象，透過選舉矯正過來。 

馬英九在三合一選後，不承認自己敗選，兩岸的第四次「江陳會」，更在台中大搞戒嚴，顯然馬政府對基層民意對「傾中」的疑慮，根本沒有放在眼裡，甚至不斷強調，兩岸簽署ECFA是勢在必行，時間則訂在今年五月分。馬政府對兩岸談判黑箱作業、一意孤行的決策模式，沒有任何反省和檢討。再加上，進口美牛、疫苗副作用等民生議題的持續發燒，馬政府又都沒有能力妥善處理，在民眾積怨已深之下，即使國民黨擁有再龐大的行政資源和組織動員力量，終究難逃被選民唾棄的命運。 

這次立委選舉對國民兩大黨而言，都很重要，國民黨在三合一選舉中小敗後，又再次敗選，可能出現兵敗如山倒的處境，馬政府在國家立場、政策思維、行政效能等各個層面，很難痛改前非，可以預料，緊接下來2月27日的四席立委補選，以及年底的五大直轄市選戰的結果，未來恐怕出現「骨牌效應」，對馬英九2012年的總統連任之路，已經是烽火四起、荊棘遍地，馬政府執政不佳、親中政策不得民心，如果方向不做調整的話，神仙也無法解救他的政治宿命。

Arrogant Ma suffered another fatal blow

On January 9, Taiwan’s ruling Kuomintang (KMT) suffered another setback as it lost all three seats in the legislative by-elections to the main opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). DPP candidate Lai Kun-cheng won the first-ever legislative seat in the eastern county for the opposition party,

President Ma Ying-jeou appointed King Pu-Tsung as the KMT Secretary- General after the Dec. 5 setback, hoping that his most trusted right-hand man could help the party turn around in upcoming crucial elections. It is well-known that Mr. King is the spin-doctor for Ma since the later ran successfully for Mayor of Taipei in 1998. After the defeat last week, King said the party will learn a lesson from the failure To reverse the fortune, King will have to work overtime to try and put a positive spin on this one as the losses have proved again that voters have yet to regain confidence in Ma and the party he leads amid widespread belief that he is incompetent. Ma is extremely unpopular in Taiwan now; even the candidates shunned his help during campaigns .

As DPP gaining momentum, KMT will face more challenges next month in yet another round of legislative by-elections, and crucial races at the end of the year for the top posts of five special municipalities.

The latest gains will allow the DPP to have one-fourth of the total seats in the Legislature — which will give it power to propose constitutional amendments and to launch a recall of the president. DPP leaders indicated that they will refrain from using this power indiscriminately.

Ma’s unpopularity was not only reflected by the results of January 9 election. Last week Ma’s KMT dominated Legislative Yuan (LY) voted against his US beef protocol agreement; a bad sign for the President when his own party even turns against him. But the heavy-handed, secret dealings of Ma were too much even for them. Premier Wu Den-yih said that they “assumed” that people would just go along and support their patronizing paternalism. Unfortunately that is not what participative democracy is all about.

Since Ma became the president, he and his cronies embraced “One –China” principle and down-graded Taiwan’s sovereignty. Ma has continually vowed that he will defend the nation’s sovereignty to the end. Nevertheless he pushes the nation into economic dependency on the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and prevents the nation’s flag from being flown lest it be seen by and offend China’s Chen Yunlin when he visits. Further the people watched Ma acquiesce to be called Mr. Ma , rather than Mr. President , by the same Chen.

Now, they are pushing ECFA for the economic dependency on China. So far the government has not used any language, let alone plain language in explaining ECFA. No one knows what is in this alleged “transparent” package. All Ma’s people have said so far is, “We have a blank check for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and we want you to sign it.” Ma’s arrogance and aloofness has offended many people in Taiwan.

As shown by recent election results, because people have had enough of Ma, DPP is climbing up from the ashes after a series of defeats in major elections since 2007, including the crushing defeat in 2008 presidential election. Today, DPP is in a better position to check the KMT's dominance of the Legislature. It is good for Taiwan’s fledgling democracy to have two parties with nearly equal strength. DPP must not squander away any gains in recovery so far because of its in-fighting.