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「台灣大劫難」一書的作者，旅澳洲中國流亡海外異議人士袁紅冰教授，1月23日在洛杉磯台灣會館發表公開演講。不但吸引許多台灣鄉親，更有不少中國人出席，是台美人社區活動罕見的現象，尤其演講完的Q & A，更是精彩。袁紅冰理智及邏輯的論述，將中國共產極權政權的本質以及對中國人民以及台灣的危害，剖析得十分透徹，非常有力地破除中共及馬英九政府的假象及謊言。
圖為袁紅冰(前中)和部份南加演講會主辦人合影。(陳國昌 攝)
初選採用民調，提名制度變革代表什麼意義？
1月24日，民進黨召開臨全會，敲定年底5都直轄市長與市議員選舉，提名完全採用完全民調，也不進行黨員投票。這個方案通過時，曾遭受扁系、獨派等派系人馬的反對，經過一番協調的過程，才能過關。
民進黨提名制度改變後，統派媒體有了「驚人」的解讀，中國評論社分析說，此乃「攸關民進黨路線走向、兩岸政策，影響既深且遠，這將是民進黨揮別沖突與極端，走向中道路線，擺脫深綠勢力挾持的重要轉捩點」，又說，「雖然只是一項看來微不足道的提名辦法改革，卻是民進黨近一、二十年來最重要的一次寧靜革命，這一步先從五都市長、市議員出發，未來必然會慢慢拓展到其他選舉」，最後結語則表示，「先從提名制度再到路線、兩岸政策，我們期待民進黨能一步步走上溫和、理性之路」。
民進黨提名制度的變革，被媒體稱做創黨以來罕見的大變革，民進黨的改革，其實是有跡可尋，誠如民進黨秘書長蘇嘉全強調，從過去的幹部評鑑、黨員投票、到民意調查，都是隨著環境的改變而跟著演變。去年9月，最高檢察署發文，將代繳黨費及人頭黨員視為「賄選」，既然檢調已將觸角伸進民進黨內，就不得不做改革，可是是否要完全排除黨員初選，全盤採取民調的方式，可能有討論的空間。
過去民進黨的提名作業，最被詬病的是人頭黨員問題，民進黨公職為了尋求提名，需要黨員的支持，這是天經地義的事，可是部份公職為了綁樁，開始組織支持者，形成固定的班底，為了方便，代繳黨費，久而久之，卻在全國各地都產生了「人頭黨員大戶」，手中擁有許多黨員，大至上萬，小至數百，到了奇貨可居的地步，有意問鼎黨公職的人士，需要尋求「人頭黨員大戶」的奧援，才有出線的機會。
民進黨的「人頭黨員文化」越演越盛，每次黨公職選舉中，都傳出「人頭黨員大戶」介入選戰的消息，最離譜的一次，是激烈的2008年總統大選黨內初選，屏東縣一位無黨籍蔡姓人士，竟然也是民進黨的「人頭大戶」，成了各方人馬爭取的對象，無黨籍政客養了許多民進黨「人頭黨員」，也是政壇的一大奇聞，可見民進黨的人頭黨員問題，確實是很嚴重。
其實民進黨提名制度已發生多次變革，鑑於人頭黨員太過氾濫，黨員投票的比例節節下滑，到了2007年區域立委選舉提名時，已下降到僅占三成，而七成要由民調來決定，不分區立委提名，第一階段黨員投票占40%，第二階段民意調查占60%。在新提名制度下，人頭黨員大戶無法再藉著黨員票來操控提名，要在初選中出線，必須通過民意檢驗，方能獲得提名，取得參選的入場券。
對於民進黨提名制度的變革，不宜做太過氾政治化的解讀，統媒把民進黨的改革，解讀為「將是民進黨揮別衝突與極端，走向中道路線，擺脫深綠勢力挾持的重要轉捩點」，是言過其實的說法。如前面的述說，民進黨採取民調的方式，有不得不為的「苦衷」，為了面對司法單位查緝「代繳黨費」涉及賄選問題，不得不改弦易轍，有所變革，怎麼可以說成是「擺脫深綠勢力挾持」的做法呢？
由於人頭黨員氾濫成災，衝擊民進黨的社會形象，民進黨停止公職人員黨內初選黨員投票，是可以理解的做法，可是並不代表民進黨不重視黨員的意見，對於黨職人員的選舉，民進黨仍應維持由黨員投票產生的方式，因為司法單位對代繳黨費的規範，僅限於公職人員而已，民進黨高層核心的權力來源，還是來自黨員，包括中常會、中執會的組成，即是由黨員一票一票產生黨代表再行使職權產生的結果，黨主席更是由黨員直接投票選舉出來，民進黨來自民間，重視基層的聲音，當然沒有理由忽略黨員的意見，民進黨秘書長蘇嘉全提出，未來可能會採用黨員的抽樣民調來進行，一方面可以避免黨員涉入賄選的爭議，同時又不必大費周章的動員，或許不失為可行的方案。
可是民調決定民進黨提名人選，並非選戰的萬靈丹，過去民進黨採用民調產生提名者，並非就是萬無一失，尤其是在選民結構藍大於綠的北台灣，如果單純以民調來決定人選，也有可能產生一些流弊出現，在民調進行期間，也要防範泛藍人士支持特定的人選，意圖操縱民進黨黨內初選，或是製造假民調，故意支持沒有勝算的候選人出線，2008年立委選舉黨內初選時會出現「排藍民調」，有其特別的時空背景，正是反制泛藍勢力介入民進黨民調的做法，民進黨要以民調來一決勝負，可能要有全方位的策略，才能防範民調副作用流弊的產生。
民進黨臨全會調整提名制度，絕對不能代表民進黨路線的轉變，或兩岸政策將會慢慢轉變。在台灣政治光譜中，民進黨代表的是台灣優先、本土第一的路線，也就是本土化的方向，不論民進黨提名那一位出任候選人，都不能背離台灣主體性的路線，誠如蘇嘉全的話，民進黨一定是在「台灣是一個主權獨立國家」立場上來進行，不可能說「台灣是中國的一部分」，這樣的認知，代表的是民進黨的核心價值，也是民進黨生存的必要條件，希望經由提名制度的變革，就要改變民進黨的核心理念，讓民進黨由主張台灣住民自決的政黨，變成傾向統一，朝野兩黨「在統獨的光譜上漸漸靠近」，這是自欺欺人、痴人說夢話的說法。
One year after….
President Obama should focus on economy,
economy, and economy
A year ago this week, approximately 3 million people were gathering in the Washington Mall braving the bitter cold weather to witness Barack Obama swear in as the 44th president of the United States. It was hailed as an historical moment-an African American, or to be exact, a mix-raced of Irish and Kenyan origins, has become the president of this great country. With unprecedented approval rating at 67% , the new president embarked on his presidency touting the need for change and articulating his grand plan. For a country suffered the brutal economic recession, his presidency shined as a ray of hope in many people.
It is amazing how much difference one year can make. Since his inauguration a year ago, his Democratic Party has lost the governorship to a Republican in the key political state of Virginia, and the same goes for “blue” state New Jersey. And in the first anniversary of his presidency, in the” bluest” of all sates in the Union, Massachusetts, a Republican won the “ Kennedy “ seat since 1953 in the Senate, ending the super majority which Democratic enjoyed for a year. On top of all these setbacks, President Obama’s approval rating has been falling steadily from 65% a year ago to currently 45%.The Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll for this week showed that 26% of the nation's voters strongly approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President while forty percent (40%) strongly disapprove, which gives Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -14.
In his first year, President Obama did accomplish some key initiatives: singed legislation to expand publicly funded insurance for children, put into action for a definite time to end US military involvement in Afghanistan, signed a $787-billion economic stimulus bill, and nominated Sonia Sotomayor to be the first Latino justice on the US Supreme Court. But, apparently majority of the American people were not impressed by Obama’s performance. Take the healthcare overhaul as an example. It is the center piece of his “Change we can” rhetoric. But, it was so water-down, ( e. g. the Senate version does not have the public option), 3o millions uninsured Americans and their families were very disappointed and felt betrayed. They felt that Obama did not bring hope, instead bring betrayal to this country. Same sentiments are from gay and lesbian communities who want to end” the Defense of Marriage Act” , anti-war activists who want to end wars in Iraq and Afghanistan now, and people who are looking for more aggressive actions from President on the job creation and economic growth.
One of Obama’s problems is the Healthcare reform proposal. He spent almost all his political capital on this issue and in the end the reform bills from both Houses are so water-downed that upset his constituents. In the meantime, people who are suffering in the economic Tsunami wanted President to spend more time and energy on initiatives related to job creations. With US unemployment still hovering at 10% ( actual number was estimated around 18%, if all forms of employment are included). He needs to tell American people that he feels their pain and to explain to them how he is going to tackle the problem. Obama has to do it quickly and decisively.
But, on the anniversary of Obama’s White House, we want to remind our follow Americans the historical perspective on his presidency. When we consider that 63% of the respondents in a 1958 Gallop poll said that if their political party “ nominated a generally well-qualified man for president and he happened to be a Negro” they would not vote for him, we will get a sense that how far we as a nation has advanced along the way. We believe that Obama’s white House represents America’s progressive “open to the talents” milestone. His career is a great example of how far talent, ambition, hard work, and a focus on what one wants to achieve can take you in today’s America. He, an African American, was from a divorced family, raised by grandparents, became a Ivy League student, Harvard Law Review editor, community organizer, law school professor, local politician, US senator, best-selling author, and ultimately the president of United States. We must not forget that Obama is man of great talent and that his success in so many fields of his endeavors and his success in winning the white voters are our hopes that our children will live in a America which appreciates merits regardless of one’s the skin, ethnicity, gender, or race.
President Obama deserves a bipartisan cooperation on his initiatives if he extends his hands to the other side of the isle. We should look at his legislative proposal and ask only “will this proposal benefit America in the long run?” Republicans should play the roles of royal oppositions. A successful Obama presidency will enhance our belief that America is the “City on the Hill”, which God created with His divine purposes.
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