休士頓台灣同鄉會慶祝40週年，於一月三十日舉行年會，圖為慶祝台灣同鄉會40週年慶，與會的歷任前會長合影。在當年「中國國民黨」的白色恐怖執政時期，這樣的照片即是被列入「黑名單」的證據，此時即見證當時前輩們的正義及勇氣。(轉載自休士頓台灣同鄉會會訊, 2月6 日)

現實主義抬頭下  美中關係摸石前進

上週美國宣佈總值約64億美元的對台軍售，又宣布在圖博政教領袖達賴喇嘛本月將訪美國，美國總統歐巴馬將和他見面。稍早，美國國務卿克林頓在「中國Google」事件上對中國以「信息幕」(Information Curtain)(仿邱吉爾首相所創鐵幕一詞)，嚴加批評。她更在伊朗核武事件上，堅決要求中國加入國際社會對伊朗的禁運。對這一連串的事件，在表面上，中國義正嚴詞的反駁，並採取公開的抗議行動：中國對「Google事件」毫不讓步，認為是Google公司商業上的決定，和中美兩國政府毫無關係；中國抗議對台軍售，表示暫停美、中軍售交流，並揚言將在商業貿易領域，制裁提供給台灣武器的廠商，例如波音公司。中國也和往昔一樣，發表嚴正聲明，警告美國，如果歐巴馬本月份和達賴喇嘛見面，將嚴重傷害二國關係，一時風雨欲來，雙方關係緊張度提高不少。

這些發展應是在意料之中。只是，在一年前，歐巴瑪總統就任不久，對中國採取「圓緩互相尊重」(Walk softly and carry a message of mutual respect)，因此，克林頓國務卿去年首次國外之行，到中國時，完全不提中國對人權的迫害，歐巴瑪總統和達賴喇嘛的會面延到他去年訪問中國之後。在去年訪問中國時，歐巴瑪總統完全依照中方的安排，行禮如儀，在正式場合，談到美、中關係，只提美、中三公報，而只在非正式記者會提到台灣關係法。歐巴瑪總統上任之初，承他所揭示和敵友各方坦誠對談，希望中國能在對全球有重大影響的議題，例如北韓、伊朗核武野心、全球財經危機以及大氣溫升等重要議題能與美國合作。一年來，美國的委曲求全，卻未見中國對等地善意回報，甚至中國一些表現，令歐巴瑪政府顏面盡失。去年12月7日到18日在哥本哈根的全球大氣溫升的會議上，中國不顧國際禮儀，派二部部長級的官員出席元首級的會議，在會中這二位高幹，竟然在美國總統發表意見時，張牙舞爪的批評。歐巴瑪總統還得親自到處去找中國總理溫家寶來談。因中國反對各國所商妥的協議，造成哥本哈根會議，一事無成。而在伊朗加速發展高速離心提鍊鈿-2 35之際，國社會(即或是蘇聯)完全同意美國的建議：對伊朗採取懲罰性的禁運，中國為了確保其取自伊朗的能源，在聯合國安理會上，採取反對的態度。而中國最近對人權的壓迫，卻變本加厲，將異議分子劉曉波判重刑，不在Google事件上讓步，反而加強對網路、網際通訊系統的箝制，更處決去年烏魯木齊動亂中的三名維吾爾的回教徒。很顯然，歐巴瑪總統的對中國新策略，在表面上好像行不通，不過，他是否會因此改絃易轍，將取強硬的對中政策？我們認為微調是很可能，但除非二國有「戰爭邊緣」的事件(例如2001年的美國偵察機迫降海南島)，歐巴瑪總統很可能仍持「圓緩互重」的政策來處理美、中關係。

以對台軍售為例，這次雖總值高達64億美元，但如果詳細分析所的武器項目，不難發現，這些軍品，例如黑鷹直昇機、愛國型對空飛彈、魚叉飛彈，以及二艘掃雷艇(台灣前已獲有)都屬於戰術性的武器，只有其中和博勝計劃有關的多訊處理系統(MIDS)，勉強可以用來強化台灣和美國全球防禦系統的聯結，但這達系統卻屬於低量(Low Volume)，不能用在天氣氣象的偵測。台灣急需的F-16戰機以及小布希總統前所批准的潛艇也不在內。歐巴瑪總統可能是為了杜絕美國國內保守派不滿中立場太過軟弱的批評，而作出的政治秀。既可以宣示美國繼續支持其長期友邦台灣，64億美元的軍火買賣對國防工業也可以創造不少就業機會。由他以一些不重要的軍品，在中國領導人胡錦濤來美訪問之前宣布對台軍售，也更可看出他不願在全美國上下，對振興經濟殷望深切之際，因為台灣問題來分心。

中國經濟上的實力，全球及美國經濟不景氣，已將美中關係的互相依賴性大大加深。中國依賴美國的自由市場(卻不在人民幣升值上讓步，也不支持大氣溫升的控制)，美國依賴中國的信用貸款(使利率偏低，造成房地產的泡沫化)，美國對中國政策的重心目前來看仍是在尋求中國支持對伊朗的禁運，人民幣的升值，以及減少進口的限制等。美國今年的赤字將達1.2兆美元，歐、日各國經濟也欲振乏力。在這一切向錢看的大環境之下，各國對中國的政策由理想主義(人權)漸漸轉向現實主義(金權)應不是太出人意料之外。由最近今年輪到當歐盟主席的西班牙，提議討論對中國軍售是否清楚，就可以看出端倪。在這個大環境下，美中關係將摸石前進，不會有鉅變。

Forcing Taiwan’s KMT To Face the Reality of Loss

The death of a dream and the loss of a country are terrible things to face and admit. It has been sixty years since the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lost its civil war in China and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) drove them into exile. Sixty years! But even though sixty years have passed, many KMT members have still not gone through the five stages of the grieving process and come to accept that loss. Instead, they remain locked in one or other of the earlier stages of grief (denial, anger, and bargaining). Acceptance is too hard a pill to swallow, but as the KMT wallows in its grief, denial and pity, Taiwan suffers.

There is no doubt that in the immediate years after 1949, almost all the fleeing KMT members (waishengren) were in a stage of denial. Defeat was only temporary, they said. The Chinese people were mistaken about the KMT’s corruption. KMT leadership constantly talked of regrouping, preparing and retaking China. Slogans were memorized and mouthed in Taiwan and abroad. All who disagreed were traitors and those in Taiwan were imprisoned and beaten until they reformed. Denial was the mode of the day.

As the years of denial extended, anger sprang up along side of it. How dare the Communists take the homeland from them? It was the KMT’s privilege to rule; it was their entitlement. They had an honorable cause. This anger was projected not only on the CCP but also on the Taiwanese. With the communists there was to be no communication, no compromise, and no contact. For Taiwanese, 2-28, martial law, and the White Terror became expressions of anger and frustration, and Taiwan suffered.

The harder one denies and fights loss, the longer one remains in a given stage of denial or anger, and so many KMT remain locked in this past even today. The nation’s out-dated Constitution of 1947 is one example; it still speaks of the “free area” of the Republic of China and the not free. It talks as if Mongolia and Tibet still belong under its rule. A different example was the fantasy that only the KMT could handle the economy of the nation, but that fantasy met its demise in the last two years.

Others in the KMT have moved on to the bargaining stage. Rather than accept democracy in Taiwan where Taiwanese can be elected leaders, they have now gone back to China to bargain for a sharing of power with the Communists. They will give them Taiwan on a platter if they can be allowed to share the profits and rule Taiwan perhaps as a province. Some try to maintain the dream by creating the 1992 fantasy consensus of “one China” with two different interpretations. They strive to preserve a semblance of the old days where the KMT and the CCP remain in a stand-off, a pause in their civil war. And the Taiwanese still suffer.

There is some hope. Some KMT have gone through the stages of denial, anger, bargaining, and depression and have reached a stage where they can accept and see Taiwan as their homeland. But those are few in number; the majority of the KMT remain in stages of the past; they can only try to preserve some semblance of the dream if even for their own sense of sanity and self-worth.

For Taiwanese the choices are simple and clear. Sixty years of allowing the KMT to grieve are too long. The process has been turned into a twisted justification of the rebirth of KMT entitlement. For the nation’s own survival Taiwanese must exercise a form of tough love. It is time to push the resisting KMT through the final stages of grief. It is time to end the charade and vote such sluggards out of office. It is time to rid the country of its leeches. Let the elections at the end of February be the first start. Only then can the nation progress and its true Taiwanese identity be formed.